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Every day that passes, the likelihood that Putin was simply arrogant and got embarrassed, that the attack was a strategic surprise, increases a little, while the likelihood of a false flag diminishes, in my assessment. I'm watching the Russian media space: if the entire thing seems forgotten in two weeks, and Solovyov is ranting about something else, then it's likely because the Kremlin doesn't want to dwell on failure. The more they make of it, on the other hand, the more likely a false flag is.

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I think false flag in the strict sense can be ruled out, and tend towards incompetence being what's being covered up here, but one can never be totally sure with this Russian government.

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