What Are the Russians Up To in Syria?

Russian forces in Syria | image source

Israel’s devastation of Iran’s regional imperial architecture was the crucial factor in the downfall of Syria’s ruler, Bashar al-Asad, in December, and Asad’s fall added to the disasters for Iran since October 2023. It might have been expected that the Iranians’ strategic partner, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, would share in Tehran’s setback, but the Russians persistently positioned themselves throughout the Syrian war as a separable element, even as a benevolent actor that restrained Iran, and many were prepared to believe it, the Israelis included. In the aftermath of Asad’s demise, the pattern has held. While the present Syrian government of ex-insurgents led by Ahmad al-Shara has, so far, cast Iran as an irreconcilable foe of the new order, Damascus’s approach to Russia has been much more ambivalent, providing Russia space to adapt to the situation. Some indications of how Russia is trying to salvage its position in Syria and the extent of its progress have emerged recently.